Solar module prices in India ‘likely to remain subdued in the near term’

December 29, 2023

For PV builders in India, what’s the landed value of modules imported from China, Vietnam, and Hong Kong after accounting for all duties, logistics costs, and fall in prices? Are these nonetheless cheaper than modules assembled in India? How has the continuous fall in module prices globally affected the pricing by Indian producers?

The prices of the imported mono PERC modules (sooner than obligation and logistics) witnessed a significant decline over the earlier 15 months, declining to an all-time low of 12-13 cents/watt in December 2023 from an extreme of 27-28 cents/watt seen in This autumn FY2022 and reduce than the 23-24 cents/watt seen in December 2022. Moreover, cell prices have declined to 5-6 cents/watt in December 2023 from the peak of 16-17 cents/watt in December 2022.

Based on the prevailing cell and module prices, the landed value of imported modules is anticipated to be about 19-20 cents/watt, whereas the worth of modules sourced from residence OEMs using imported cells is anticipated to be bigger at 22-23 cents/watt.

With ALMM relaxation till March 31, 2024, and a drop in module prices, module imports are rising. How can Indian producers preserve aggressive?

The imports of photograph voltaic cells and modules elevated by 155% to INR 22,992 crore ($2.8 million) in 7M FY2024 from INR 9,020 crore in 7M FY2023, in view of the abeyance of the ALMM order and a sharp decline in photograph voltaic PV cell and module prices. Whereas the house OEMs are anticipated to be protected in opposition to imports via the ALMM post-March 31, 2024 (assuming that the abeyance won’t be extended), the pricing would keep uncovered to worldwide wafer and cell prices given the dependence on imports for key inputs. The Indian photograph voltaic OEMs can improve their competitiveness via backward integration and rising the scale of operations.

Do you depend on the autumn in module prices to persist in 2024?

Given the dominance of Chinese language language OEMs all through the photograph voltaic PV manufacturing price chain, the pricing would keep delicate to the supply coming from China along with their functionality progress plans. Throughout the near time interval, the prices are inclined to remain subdued.

Do you suppose the module oversupply throughout the worldwide market may hit the expansion plans of Indian producers?

The plans by the Indian producers would keep linked with the protection obtainable in opposition to the cheaper imports, i.e., ALMM and BCD regime. If the ALMM order had been to be restored post-March 2024, the house producers are susceptible to proceed with their progress plans. Nonetheless, the producers ought to focus on backward integration, know-how adoption, and scaling up their capacities to compete with the worldwide producers.

Provided that the manufacturing functionality in India is susceptible to exceed the house demand if the entire functionality progress plans, along with beneath the PLI scheme, had been to fructify, the ability of the Indian photograph voltaic OEMs to remain aggressive with the worldwide buddies will be important to achieve a respective share throughout the export markets.