New reporting from Bernreuter Research found that polysilicon imports into China have fallen to the underside diploma since 2011. Exterior imports of polysilicon fell by 28.5% to 62,965 MT in 2023 — now decrease than the 64,614 MT reached in 2011.
“The non-Chinese language language polysilicon producers Wacker, Hemlock Semiconductor, and OCI Malaysia are an increasing number of shifting their shipments from China to Vietnam, the place three of the 4 largest Chinese language language picture voltaic module suppliers have established wafer crops,” outlined Johannes Bernreuter, head of the polysilicon market specialist Bernreuter Evaluation and author of the Polysilicon Market Outlook 2027.
In 2018/2019 JA Picture Voltaic started wafer manufacturing in Vietnam with an annual functionality of 1.5 GW, which it expanded to 4 GW throughout the first half of 2023. JinkoSolar adopted a 7-GW wafer plant in early 2022, and Trina Picture Voltaic opened a 6.5-GW wafer manufacturing facility in August 2023.
The shift of non-Chinese language language polysilicon being exported elsewhere is normally a results of AD/CVD instances within the US in direction of Chinese language language producers working in Southeast Asia. If Southeast Asian picture voltaic exports do not use Chinese language language wafers, they don’t ought to pay the tariffs beginning in June. To verify, most producers making merchandise for the U.S. market have shifted upstream manufacturing out of China.
In addition to the Uyghur Compelled Labor Prevention Act (UFLPA) bands merchandise made with compelled labor in Xinjiang in northwestern China from entering into the US and contributes to separate chains based on polysilicon from non-Chinese language language producers. Having wafer manufacturing exteriors in China makes it easier for the producers to doc to U.S. Customs and Border Security (CBP) that no silicon metallic or polysilicon from Xinjiang has entered their supplied chains.
Nonetheless, customs statistics current that polysilicon exports from China to Vietnam soared from 639 MT in 2022 to 4,970 MT in 2023. “That raises doubts regarding the claims of a separate present chain and will sound alarm bells on the CBP,” Bernreuter talked about.
Hemlock Semiconductor (USA), Wacker (Germany/USA), and OCI Malaysia collectively had been able to reinforce their polysilicon exports to Vietnam from 18,672 MT in 2022 (+78.2%) to 33,265 MT in 2023. This improvement higher than compensated for the 13,918 MT they misplaced in enterprise amount in China in 2023. Whereas Hemlock and OCI achieved an web enhancement from their exports to every worldwide location, Wacker’s two German polysilicon crops exhibit a detrimental steadiness: Although they’d been able to extend the exports to Vietnam by 7,617 MT (+151%) to 12,662 MT, their imports into China plummeted from 48,070 MT in 2022 by 12,627 MT (-26.3%) to 35,443 MT in 2023.
Wacker and OCI account for 98% of Chinese language language polysilicon imports now
Throughout the polysilicon shortage, China imported large volumes from Japan (2021: 15,431 MT; 2022: 6,129 MT) and Taiwan (2021: 6,899 MT; 2022: 3,480 MT). At excessive market prices, the Japanese picture voltaic module producer Sharp remodeled into money-appreciable inventories, which resulted from a long-term purchase contract with Hemlock Semiconductor working in 2020.
Likewise, the earlier Taiwanese wafer producer Danen supplied polysilicon shares from a long-term contract with OCI, which expired in 2023. These two sources have been exhausted now: Japan’s month-to-month import cost melted proper right down to a selection of fifty MT to twenty MT throughout the fourth quarter of 2023; shipments from Taiwan have already gone proper right down to zero since last August.
Imports from the US and South Korea developed a associated strategy to those from Japan in 2023. Consequently, the combined share of Germany’s Wacker and OCI Malaysia in full Chinese language language polysilicon imports rose to 97.8% throughout the fourth quarter. Moreover, there was a dangling drop typically volumes since October: Whereas full imports lay between roughly 15,000 MT and 20,000 MT per quarter throughout the first three quarters, the amount fell abruptly to decrease than 10,000 MT throughout the fourth.
“If the fourth quarter is any indicator for 2024, then polysilicon imports into China will plunge by one different 40% to no more than 38,000 MT this yr,” Bernreuter talked about.
Information merchandise from Bernreuter Analysis
